Sweden’s Carbon Balance – Current Status and Potential Future Developments
To achieve a sustainable and efficient carbon supply, it is essential to assess both the current status and potential future developments. Currently, there is a lack of comprehensive data on Sweden’s total carbon balance and how it might evolve. This project aims to compile an overall picture of Sweden’s carbon balance and provide an overview analysis of various potential future developments concerning the availability and needs for sustainable carbon.
There is a long-term need for sustainable carbon atoms, both for producing sustainable carbon-based products such as fuels, chemicals, and materials, and for achieving negative emissions. Policies and regulations across various areas—for instance, waste, the chemical industry, fuels, and other energy sources—lack a comprehensive understanding of how to achieve an effective and sustainable carbon supply. It is therefore crucial to highlight and clarify this perspective to better integrate it into policy development.
This project will provide insights into the developments needed to achieve a sustainable carbon supply across the entire system. It will be carried out in two phases.
In the first phase, based on completed and ongoing mappings, supplemented with additional data collection and synthesis, Sweden’s total carbon balance will be established (current status). The compilation will highlight and clarify differences between biogenic and fossil carbon, energy and product flows, stationary and non-stationary energy applications, as well as various sectors and industries.
In the second phase, scenarios for potential future developments up to 2045 will be developed. These scenarios will explore aspects such as where carbon “must” be used, where carbon use can be replaced with other alternatives, and the need for renewable energy to substitute carbon-based energy sources. They will also address the need to convert biogenic and circular carbon into high-value raw material and product streams.
Goals
The project will demonstrate:
• Society’s continued and long-term dependence on carbon.
• Where the major flows of biogenic and fossil carbon are located.
• How various flows can/need to take new paths to replace fossil sources.
• The opportunities and challenges for Sweden in a future market for sustainable carbon.
Participating partners
RISE, Borealis, Fortum, Göteborg Energi, IKEM, Liquid Wind, Preem, Renova, Skogsindustrierna, Södra
Time Period
2025-01-01 – 2025-11-28
Total budget
840 000 SEK
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