Doubling of Electricity Demand and Delays in Industrial Transition
The industrial climate transition in Västra Götaland is in full swing, but is currently taking place in a global environment characterised by geopolitical unrest and economic uncertainty. A new interview study involving the region's largest industrial actors shows that several planned projects have been postponed, whilst electricity demand is set to double by 2035.
Electrification constitutes a major part of the industry's planned transition measures. However, increased use of bio-based and recycled raw materials and energy, as well as carbon capture and storage or utilisation (CCS/CCU), will also lead to an increased demand for electricity in the future.
The Västra Götaland Region and RISE interviewed around 10 industrial actors, who together account for approximately 95 per cent of industrial emissions in the region, alongside two major new establishments regarding their planned electricity demand up to 2035.
"Collectively, the industry's needs show an increase of 8 TWh, which is more than a doubling when added to today's 6 TWh. At the same time, the companies point out that the demand could be significantly higher once market conditions are in place. Furthermore, this figure does not include sectors such as transport or electrofuel production," says Fredrik Dahlström Dolff, Regional Development Officer for Energy Systems and Renewable Energy at the Västra Götaland Region, during a webinar for members of Climate Leading Process Industry on 22 May 2026.
Moving forward, there is a demand for stable and predictable conditions over time, as well as clear policy instruments to create market conditions and demand for sustainable products. Ensuring that grid capacity is delivered at the right time is also crucial for the industry to swiftly implement projects and remain competitive globally once the necessary conditions are established.
"On the whole, the interviewees feel that the dialogue with local electricity grid companies has improved, but a 'chicken and egg' dilemma remains. Grid owners require projects to have reached a certain level of maturity before capacity can be allocated, whereas companies cannot make vital investment decisions without guaranteed access to grid capacity," says Fredrik Dahlström Dolff.
The study shows that several planned projects have been pushed back in time due to market uncertainty and a lack of long-term rules of the game. However, the companies' commitment to the transition and their long-term climate targets remain firm, and they consider the ability to offer products with a low carbon footprint to be absolutely vital for future competitiveness.
"It is an important message from the industry that the willingness to transition remains, and that the work has not ground to a halt but has merely been postponed," says Maria Edvall, Area Manager for Energy and Hydrogen within Climate Leading Process Industry.
Sara Mårlind, Acting Programme Manager for Hållbar Kemi, also participated in the webinar on 22 May and confirmed that the Stenungsund companies' view of the situation aligns with the responses in the interview study. In addition to access to fossil-free electricity at competitive prices, there is one factor in particular she highlights to accelerate the transition work.
— "Demand, demand, demand for the green products! That is the game-changer, and here we need traction from policy, public procurement or other regulatory instruments," she says.
